Green Mountain Local · Quarterly
Q1 2026
Inside the numbers in Green Mountain Estates
January – March 2026 · Published May 2026
Q1 generally kicks off strong. Holiday slowdown ends, the buyers already in the market set the pace, and the homes that list early get attention. This year the winter ran unseasonably warm. No deep cold to keep people in, no powder days pulling them to the mountains. Buyers were out shopping earlier than usual, and you can see it in the numbers below. A noticeable shift from a 2025 where most sellers had to cut their price to find a buyer. Going into Q2 I'm watching whether the buyers who showed up in Q1 keep showing up as the rate environment changes.
$775K
Median
Sale Price
Sale Price
+1% vs 2025
8d
Median
Days on Market
Days on Market
Holding at 8d
96%
% of listings
that sold
that sold
Steady
The neighborhood's typical sale price held steady through the year, drifting around the $775K median. But Q1 itself was sharper than the trailing year suggests. Of 7 closings, 6 went at or above the original asking price, well above the trailing-year split where roughly 4 in 10 hit ask. Concessions ran higher too: 5 of those 7 buyers asked for closing-cost help, at a $17K median. Buyers were paying close to ask, but they were still negotiating where they could.
One sale worth noting
1178 S Braun Cir sold for $1,475,000, 23% above its $1.2M ask, in 14 days, with $29,500 in seller concessions.
What's my home worth?
Neighborhood-wide · last 12 months
Median sale price
$775,000
$328 per finished sqft
Held within 1% of last year's median
The typical home that sold · last 12 months
4 BD / 3 BA
2,000 sqft above-grade
2,240 sqft finished total
By price tier · last 12 months
Entry
$610,000
Typical home
4 BD / 2 BA
Finished2,000 sqft
Total2,092 sqft
Mid
$777,500
Typical home
4 BD / 3 BA
Finished2,204 sqft
Total2,574 sqft
Upper
$1,034,000
Typical home
5 BD / 4 BA
Finished3,328 sqft
Total3,387 sqft
Will it sell, and how fast?
Neighborhood-wide · last 12 months
Median days on market
8 days
Holding at 8d (was 4d in 2023–24)
% of asking price · by how fast they sold
102%
Week 1 · 21 sales
→
95%
Days 8–30 · 14 sales
→
91%
31+ days · 10 sales
Right-priced homes go at or above ask in the first week. Homes that miss leave roughly 10 points on the table by month's end.
% of listings that sold
2 of 47 didn't sell
96%
Steady at this level multi-year
W Alaska Pl · 269 days · expired March 2026
$765,000 → $765,000 · no reductions
W Virginia Dr · 92 days · expired December 2025
$799,000 → $750,000 · 2 price reductions
What's the buyer pricing pressure?
Neighborhood-wide · last 12 months
% of asking price
98%
98% TTM, up from 94% in 2025
Q1 2026 specifically
102% ↑
Of asking price
+4 pts vs. last 12 months
7
Q1 sales
3d
Median days on market
Most sellers cut their price before finding a buyer, even in a strong year. The 98% headline averages two different stories: the homes that priced right, and the ones that had to come down to find a buyer.
At or above asking
43%
19 of 44 sales closed at the original asking price or higher.
Had a price reduction
57%
25 of 44 sales lowered their original asking price before finding a buyer.
Seller-paid concessions
What sellers paid out at closing, deducted from the sale price.
66%
29 of 44 sales had concessions
$6,000
Median paid by sellers
Q2 '25
62%
$6,250
8 of 13
Q3 '25
64%
$10,436
9 of 14
Q4 '25
70%
$3,000
7 of 10
Q1 '26
71%
$17,000
5 of 7
Q1's $17K median reflects a small sample (5 of 7 sales) clustered into two groups: three sales at $17K or more, two at $2K or less. The pattern of climbing concessions is real. The exact number for any single quarter is volatile.
Concessions are credits the seller pays toward the buyer's closing costs or interest-rate buy-down. For sellers, they're a real cost that doesn't show up in "% of asking price" alone.
How buyers are paying
The mix of cash, conventional, and government-backed loans across the last 12 months.
Conventional
80%
$775K median
Cash
16%
$820K median
FHA / VA
5%
$737K median
Cash buyers waive financing contingencies, which can mean stronger offers and faster closes. They're not subject to lender appraisal or loan approval. Conventional buyers use traditional mortgages. FHA and VA loans are government-backed and often involve stricter property condition requirements at appraisal.
What I'm watching going into Q2
Three patterns the Q1 numbers point to. None of them are settled. Here's what I'll be looking for over the next three months.
Well-prepared entry-tier homes are the best opportunity in GME
Entry tier (under $700K) is theoretically the best opportunity in GME, but only when the home doesn't need work. Past years' entry-tier medians have been pulled around by rough-condition homes priced for what they were. Q1 had only two entry-tier sales (1 day, 8 days), and both were well-presented. Turnkey moves fast at any price. I'm watching whether Q2 brings more entry-tier listings on, and whether the ones that move are the well-prepared homes or the as-is ones.
Q1 showed what buyers do when rates and weather cooperate
2025 closed at 94% of asking, the first dip below 100% since 2023. Q1 jumped to 102%. Warm weather got buyers out earlier, and mortgage rates dropping through February gave them reason to move. Then the Iran-Israel tension kicked off in early March and rates reversed. I'm watching whether the buyers who pushed Q1 numbers keep showing up at the new cost, or whether the spring rush already happened.
Rates are the variable I can't predict but always watch
Mortgage rates are the single biggest force on demand that GME's data can't see coming. They follow the 10-year Treasury yield, and the 10-year moves with inflation, Fed policy, and whatever's happening in the world. Q1 closed with the 30-year fixed near 6.3%, then the Iran-Israel tension flared in early March and yields reversed. I don't try to predict where this lands. What I do is watch how GME buyer activity responds: if buyers keep showing up and putting in offers at higher rates, there's deeper demand than the data alone shows. If not, we'll see it in Q2.